By KATHY GANNON
In this Saturday, Nov. 9, 2013 photo, an Afghan man has his picture taken to register for the upcoming Afghan elections in a mosque, used as a mobile voter registration place in Kabul, Afghanistan. The Independent Election Commission (IEC) says a bloated voter registration list is a messy start to the 2014 presidential elections, seen as critical to a stable Afghanistan following the final withdrawal of international combat troops at the end of 2014. (AP Photo/Anja Niedringhaus)
Afghanistan Voting Fears
In this Saturday, Nov. 9, 2013 photo, Afghan election workers wait to register voters in a wooden cabin, used as a mobile voter registration place in a school in Kabul, Afghanistan. The Independent Election Commission (IEC) says a bloated voter registration list is a messy start to the 2014 presidential elections, seen as critical to a stable Afghanistan following the final withdrawal of international combat troops at the end of 2014. (AP Photo/Anja Niedringhaus)
APTOPIX Afghanistan Voting Fears
In this Saturday, Nov. 9, 2013 photo, Afghan women line up to have their picture taken to register for the upcoming Afghan elections in a mosque, used as a mobile voter registration place in Kabul, Afghanistan. Getting Afghan women voter cards has proven a challenge for the Independent Election Commission (IEC), due to strict traditional values and the lack of female registration employees.(AP Photo/Anja Niedringhaus)
Afghanistan Voting Fears
In this Saturday, Nov. 9, 2013 photo, an Afghan woman has her picture taken to register for the upcoming Afghan elections in a mosque, used as a mobile voter registration place in Kabul, Afghanistan. Getting Afghan women voter cards has proven a challenge for the Independent Election Commission (IEC), due to strict traditional values and the lack of female registration employees. (AP Photo/Anja Niedringhaus)
APTOPIX Afghanistan Voting Fears
In this Saturday, Nov. 9, 2013 photo, an Afghan man gives his details to register for the upcoming Afghan elections in a mosque, used as a mobile voter registration place in Kabul, Afghanistan. The Independent Election Commission (IEC) says a bloated voter registration list is a messy start to the 2014 presidential elections, seen as critical to a stable Afghanistan following the final withdrawal of international combat troops at the end of 2014. (AP Photo/Anja Niedringhaus)
APTOPIX Afghanistan Voting Fears
In this Saturday, Nov. 9, 2013 photo, an Afghan woman waits to have her picture taken to register for the upcoming Afghan elections in a mosque, used as a mobile voter registration place in Kabul, Afghanistan. Getting Afghan women voter cards has proven a challenge for the Independent Election Commission (IEC), due to strict traditional values and the lack of female registration employees.(AP Photo/Anja Niedringhaus)
APTOPIX Afghanistan Voting Fears
In this Saturday, Nov. 9, 2013 photo, Afghan men peer through a window as they queue to get registered for the upcoming Afghan elections in a mosque, used as a mobile voter registration place in Kabul, Afghanistan. The Independent Election Commission (IEC) says there are 20.7 million of Afghans who have registered to vote, the only problem is there are only 12 million Afghans who are eligible to mark a ballot in 2014’s presidential election to replace Hamid Karzai, who is barred from seeking a third term in office, according to Afghanistan’s constitution. (AP Photo/Anja Niedringhaus)
Afghanistan Voting Fears
In this Saturday, Nov. 9, 2013 photo, an Afghan man has his picture taken to register for the upcoming Afghan elections in a mosque, used as a mobile voter registration place in Kabul, Afghanistan. The Independent Election Commission (IEC) says a bloated voter registration list is a messy start to the 2014 presidential elections, seen as critical to a stable Afghanistan following the final withdrawal of international combat troops at the end of 2014. (AP Photo/Anja Niedringhaus)
Afghanistan Voting Fears
In this Sunday, Nov. 10, 2013 photo, an Afghan women wait to get their voter registration cards for the upcoming Afghan elections in a mosque, used as a mobile voter registration place in Kabul, Afghanistan. Getting Afghan women voter cards has proven a challenge for the Independent Election Commission (IEC), due to strict traditional values and the lack of female registration employees. (AP Photo/Anja Niedringhaus)
Afghanistan Voting Fears
In this Saturday, Nov. 9, 2013 photo, Afghan men huddle on the floor of a mosque, used as a mobile voter registration place, to register for the upcoming Afghan elections in Kabul, Afghanistan. The Independent Election Commission (IEC) says a bloated voter registration list is a messy start to the 2014 presidential elections, seen as critical to a stable Afghanistan following the final withdrawal of international combat troops at the end of 2014. (AP Photo/Anja Niedringhaus)
Afghanistan Voting Fears
In this Saturday, Nov. 9, 2013 photo, Afghan men wait in line with their passport pictures to register for the upcoming Afghan elections in a mosque in Kabul, Afghanistan. The Independent Election Commission (IEC) says there are 20.7 million of Afghans who have registered to vote, the only problem is there are only 12 million Afghans who are eligible to mark a ballot in 2014’s presidential election to replace Hamid Karzai, who is barred from seeking a third term in office, according to Afghanistan’s constitution. (AP Photo/Anja Niedringhaus)
Afghanistan Voting Fears
In this Saturday, Nov. 9, 2013 photo, an election employee cuts out passport pictures for voter registration cards in mosque, used as a mobile voter registration place in Kabul, Afghanistan. The Independent Election Commission (IEC) says a bloated voter registration list is a messy start to the 2014 presidential elections, seen as critical to a stable Afghanistan following the final withdrawal of international combat troops at the end of 2014. (AP Photo/Anja Niedringhaus)
Afghanistan Voting Fears
In this Saturday, Nov. 9, 2013 photo, an Afghan man has his picture taken to register for the upcoming Afghan elections in a mosque, used as a mobile voter registration place in Kabul, Afghanistan. The Independent Election Commission (IEC) says a bloated voter registration list is a messy start to the 2014 presidential elections, seen as critical to a stable Afghanistan following the final withdrawal of international combat troops at the end of 2014. (AP Photo/Anja Niedringhaus)
Afghanistan Voting Fears
In this Sunday, Nov. 10, 2013 photo, an Afghan man gives his details to register for the upcoming Afghan elections in a mosque, used as a mobile voter registration place in Kabul, Afghanistan. The Independent Election Commission (IEC) says a bloated voter registration list is a messy start to the 2014 presidential elections, seen as critical to a stable Afghanistan following the final withdrawal of international combat troops at the end of 2014. (AP Photo/Anja Niedringhaus)
Afghanistan Voting Fears
In this Saturday, Nov. 9, 2013 photo, an Afghan man signs with his thumb print as he registers for the upcoming presidential election in 2014 in a makeshift mobile registration office in Kabul, Afghanistan. Holding an election in a country still reeling from 30 years of conflict and struggling to strengthen weak and often corrupt institutions is a herculean task, say experts and candidates. Security fears could keep Afghans away from polling stations, particularly in the insurgency hit south and east of the country, where ethnic Pashtuns dominate, possibly skewing the results. (AP Photo/Anja Niedringhaus)
Afghanistan Voting Fears
In this Sunday, Nov. 10, 2013 photo, Afghan women enter the female section of a mosque in Kabul, Afghanistan, used as a mobile voter registration office. The Independent Election Commission (IEC) says a bloated voter registration list is a messy start to the 2014 presidential elections, seen as critical to a stable Afghanistan following the final withdrawal of international combat troops at the end of 2014. (AP Photo/Anja Niedringhaus)
Afghanistan Voting Fears
In this Saturday, Nov. 9, 2013 photo, an Afghan woman shows her voter registration card she just got in a mosque, used as a mobile registration office in Kabul, Afghanistan. The Independent Election Commission (IEC) says multiple elections accompanied by multiple voter registrations have resulted in nearly twice as many registered voters as eligible voters for the upcoming presidential elections in 2014. There is also no data base to track the cards which have no expiry date and are good for any election the IEC says. (AP Photo/Anja Niedringhaus)
Afghanistan Voting Fears
In this Saturday, Nov. 9, 2013 photo, an Afghan policeman secures a mobile voter registration office, set up in a mosque in Kabul, Afghanistan. Holding an election in a country still reeling from 30 years of conflict and struggling to strengthen weak and often corrupt institutions is a herculean task, say experts and candidates. Security fears could keep Afghans away from polling stations, particularly in the insurgency hit south and east of the country, where ethnic Pashtuns dominate, possibly skewing the results. (AP Photo/Anja Niedringhaus)
Afghanistan Voting Fears
In this Saturday, Nov. 9, 2013 photo, an Afghan policeman secures a female mobile voter registration office, set up in a mosque in Kabul, Afghanistan. Holding an election in a country still reeling from 30 years of conflict and struggling to strengthen weak and often corrupt institutions is a herculean task, say experts and candidates. Security fears could keep Afghans away from polling stations, particularly in the insurgency hit south and east of the country, where ethnic Pashtuns dominate, possibly skewing the results. (AP Photo/Anja Niedringhaus)
Afghanistan Voting Fears
In this Saturday, Nov. 9, 2013 photo, Afghan men gather on the floor of a mosque, used as a mobile voter registration place, to register for the upcoming Afghan elections in Kabul, Afghanistan. The Independent Election Commission (IEC) says a bloated voter registration list is a messy start to the 2014 presidential elections, seen as critical to a stable Afghanistan following the final withdrawal of international combat troops in 2014.(AP Photo/Anja Niedringhaus)
Afghanistan Voting Fears
In this Saturday, Nov. 9, 2013 photo a mosque worker cleans up the stairs leading into a mosque, used as a mobile voter registration in Kabul, Afghanistan. The Independent Election Commission (IEC) says multiple elections accompanied by multiple voter registrations have resulted in nearly twice as many registered voters as eligible voters for the upcoming presidential elections in 2014. There is also no data base to track the cards which have no expiry date and are good for any election the IEC says. (AP Photo/Anja Niedringhaus)
Afghanistan Voting Fears
In this Sunday, Nov. 10, 2013 photo, Afghan women line up outside a mosque in Kabul, Afghanistan to register for the upcoming Afghan elections. Getting Afghan women voter cards has proven a challenge for the Independent Election Commission (IEC), due to strict traditional values and the lack of female registration employees. (AP Photo/Anja Niedringhaus)
Afghanistan Voting Fears
In this Sunday, Nov. 10, 2013 photo, Afghan men line up outside a mosque in Kabul, Afghanistan to register for the country’s upcoming election. The Independent Election Commission (IEC) says a bloated voter registration list is a messy start to the 2014 presidential elections, seen as critical to a stable Afghanistan following the final withdrawal of international combat troops at the end of 2014. (AP Photo/Anja Niedringhaus)
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KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — With Afghanistan’s next presidential election just five months away, authorities say they are facing a possible repeat of the abuses that have discredited the country’s efforts to build a democracy.
Election officials say they can only estimate how many voters are really on the rolls. Added to the confusion are millions of additional registration cards from the elections of the past. Taliban threats cast a further damper.
“This is the reality of this country. We are conducting elections in a difficult situation, with poor security, but we must conduct elections,” said Noor Mohammed Noor, the head of the Independent Election Commission. “It is the only way for our country to succeed.”
A credible election would do much for the West’s efforts to foster democracy in Afghanistan after allegations of fraud marred the 2009 vote that handed President Hamid Karzai a second term. He is banned by the constitution from running for a third.
The 2009 election, which gave President Hamid Karzai a second term, was severely marred by allegations of fraud. Suspicions ran from ballot-box-stuffing and bogus registration cards to men from deeply conservative areas turning up at polling stations with handfuls of registration cards to vote on behalf of female relatives, arguing that custom forbade the women to appear in public.
Noor said he worries the glut of registration cards from past elections could taint the April 6 poll. He said 20.7 million registration cards have been issued since the first post-Taliban election was held, while the commission’s best estimate for the number of eligible voters is 12 million. Afghanistan has had no comprehensive official census in nearly three decades. Attempts have been made since the 2001 U.S.-led invasion that ousted the Taliban, but they were canceled or only partially completed because of insecurity.
The registration cards have no expiration date, there is no database to track them, and they are good for any election, he told The Associated Press in an interview at the commission’s headquarters, surrounded by high concrete walls, barbed wire and phalanx of security forces in an otherwise ordinary district of Kabul.
Noor said he wished the old registration cards had been thrown out and new ones prepared for this election. Instead, the commission is working on “a badly laid foundation” of an accumulation of cards issued over the course of four presidential and parliamentary elections since 2004, plus a fifth just concluded for next April’s poll.
Also, there are no voter lists, meaning no way of checking eligibility on election day. Instead, anyone can show up at any of the 22,000 polling stations with a card and vote.
Nader Nadery, head of the nonpartisan Free and Fair Election Foundation of Afghanistan, said it is too early to charge fraud, but “there is a lot of smoke out there . . . the level of suspicion is high.”
With foreign troops set to withdraw from Afghanistan at the end of next year, a credible April 6 election would do much to validate the West’s efforts over the past 12 years to foster democracy in the country. But they face a herculean task in a country still reeling from 30 years of conflict and struggling to strengthen weak and often corrupt institutions.
Andrew Wilder of the U.S. Institute of Peace, a federally funded conflict-resolution body, said ballot-stuffing was an even bigger threat.
“Poor security in parts of the country will make it difficult and dangerous for candidates to campaign, and for voters to go to the polls and vote on election day,” said Wilder. “Poor security, as we saw in the 2009 elections, also makes it difficult for observers and party agents to monitor elections, and provides a great opportunity for ballot-box-stuffing.”
While past Taliban warnings have failed to disrupt elections, the insurgents are again threatening to kill candidates, election workers and voters, and there are fears that the approaching departure of foreign troops will sharpen the Taliban’s appetite for violence.
The election commission announced Wednesday that 11 candidates have qualified to run, and a lottery next week will determine the order that names appear on the paper ballots. Among the front-runners is Abdullah Abdullah, Karzai’s 2009 challenger who alleged the vote was rigged.
Mahmoud Saikal, a member of Abdullah’s party, said voter turnout must be pushed well above the estimated 2009 turnout of less than 30 percent to reduce the impact of ballot-box stuffing, and proxy voting by men for women should be curbed.
“We do have a little bit of time to develop an anti-fraud plan,” he said, adding that he hoped for “some courageous monitors who have the guts to go to the remote areas.”
